The South Wing

Yesterday, when reports came out suggesting that the Iranian Basiji militia would be given live ammunition, opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi felt that the risks had grown too great, and called for the protest to not occur. Though as we found out by the shooting of the Basiji of at least one protester, those rumors were true, roughly one million Tehranis either ignored or rejected Mousavi’s request and marched anyway.

Today, there are rumors of a dramatic increase of violence, including the deaths of at least seven people, and Mousavi is again calling for the general strike planned for today not to go forward. Foreign reporters are facing increasingly severe bans, making it even more difficult for the protesters to have the small protection of the international eye. Yet, the garbagemen of Tehran are out, and the doctors and nurses

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, in their work-clothes, are marching as well.

Though few

are suggesting even the possibility of anything close to revolution, this raises the question of who is leading this rally, and the probability that this extraordinary outspilling of public action is not being led. The presumption that the opposition will ultimately negotiate is premised on the presumption that Mousavi would rather be the President of an Islamic Republic of Iran as currently constituted than anything else. But Mousavi would also have liked for the protest yesterday to not have occurred, and the protest today to not occur, yet he lacks the influence even over his own nominal supporters.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has reported about the effort of the opposition, led by former Iranian President Rasfijani, to campaign amongst the senior Iranian clerics who could choose to replace the Ayatollah Khamenei if they so chose, and more likely would pressure the Supreme Leader of Iran to withdraw his support of President Ahmadinejad. After the widespread loss of faith in the efficacy and reliability of the polling process, it seems highly unlikely that the hundreds of thousands of protesters who have braved being beaten and shot would accept simply a re-do of the poll. The question, remains, though, if the Iranian protesters gain the power to remove Ahmadinejad from power, would that be enough to appease them?