The South Wing

The Sri Lankan military offensive against the LTTE in recent weeks has unexpectedly emerged as a key issue in Tamil Nadu, a southern Indian state that will play a crucial role in the 2009 Indian elections. With a total of 39 parliamentary constituencies, Tamil Nadu has historically been a significant factor in the formation of national governments. It now finds itself at the heart of the national political dialogue vis-a-vis the Sri Lanka issue. Both the major political parties in the state, the ruling DMK and the opposition AIADMK, have come out strongly in support of Tamils in Sri Lanka. While the DMK has historically supported the concept of ‘Eelam’, a separate Tamil state, which is also the founding cause of the LTTE, the AIADMK recently threw its weight behind this issue as well. Adding to this pre-election dynamic, several smaller parties of diverse political views have also stepped up the rhetoric in support of Eelam. They are increasingly converging around the idea that the formation of a separate Tamil state might be essential to end the 25 year long war between the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE.

With Tamil Nadu going to the polls on May 13th, politicians are keen to get ahead of an issue that holds considerable water with the Tamil electorate. Tamils in India are largely sympathetic to the plight of their brethren across the nations southern border. Their support for the cause of the suffering Tamil population in Sri Lanka has been further galvanized by Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s unprecedented efforts to wipe out the LTTE in recent months, a move that has put the lives of thousand of innocent Tamil civilians at risk, particularly in the North and East of Sri Lanka. Reports put the number of civilian deaths caused by the crossfire between the Sri Lankan military and the LTTE at more than 6,400 since the beginning of the year. With accusations flying back and forth about the manner in which the LTTE uses civilians as human shields and the brutal military methods employed by the Sri Lankan government, the ultimate victims in this continuing war have undoubtedly been the civilian population of Sri Lanka, and specifically Tamils. In Tamil Nadu, there have been mass protests, and awareness campaigns have been organized throughout the state. There have been eleven reported suicides in the state since last October, mostly attributed to the perceived inaction of the Indian government in reining in their Sri Lankan counterparts. The Congress-led UPA government has long been known for their harsh stance against the LTTE. Their hawkish view on the LTTE was fueled further by the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, former prime minister of India and the late husband of the current chairperson of the UPA Sonia Gandhi, by an LTTE cadre in 1991.

It is widely believed that the elusive founder and leader of the LTTE, Vellupillai Prabhakaran, has now been confined to a small strip of coastal land held by rebel fighters in the north of Sri Lanka, where the rapidly dwindling group is thought to be making its last stand. The Sri Lankan government has stated publicly their intention to capture Prabhakaran alive, and possibly extradite him to India where he faces charges in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. There is significant concern that his death, either at the hands of the Sri Lankan military or by suicide (Prabhakaran is notorious for making all the top generals of the LTTE wear cyanide capsules around their necks) could make him a martyr to the Tamil cause, in turn posing the threat of further unrest or the prospect of another secessionist movement springing up in the LTTE’s place.

The DMK, which is allied with the Congress-led UPA at the center, stirred up some controversy on April 20th when the party chief M Karunanidhi claimed that Prabhakaran was ‘not a terrorist’ and also ‘a good friend’, in an interview with a national TV channel. The Congress was relatively muted in its public response. The DMK leader retracted his statement the next day, a move that clearly hinted at some back channel maneuvering on the part of the Congress. However, the opposition AIADMK leader, J. Jayalalitha was quick to pounce on the Congress’s perceptible public silence on Karunanidhi’s comments.

The DMK has traditionally been viewed as a pro-Tamil party and one that has often been vocal in its support for the ‘liberation struggle’ waged by Tamils across the nations southern border. Karunanidhi’s astute positioning of caste and Tamil language issues during state elections have often led to electoral success for the DMK, allowing him to be chief minister of the state five times. The DMK was also crucial in bringing the Congress to power in the 2004 national elections, a contribution that allowed them to put forward 7 ministers to comprise the Central government. Given this dynamic, the Congress-led UPA appears unwilling to muddy the waters with its alliance partner ahead of the Tamil Nadu elections.

The pre-election political situation in Tamil Nadu appears to be in a state of constant flux. For the moment, however, it does appear that the AIADMK-led third front has a slight edge over their age-old rivals, the DMK. While the DMK has the Congress as their only alliance partner in the state, the AIADMK has succesffuly entered seat-sharing agreements with Left parties like the the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM), as well as the MDMK and the PMK. The notorious (yet largely unproven) anti-incumbency factor is also at play, working against the current DMK government in this case. Judging by the upsurge in pro-Tamil rhetoric by DMK chief M. Karunanidhi and his recently held fast (which he promptly broke a few hours later) in opposition to the continuing hostilities against Tamil’s in Sri Lanka, it does seem like the DMK is placing a significant bet on the importance of this issue with voters in Tamil Nadu when they go to the polls on May 13th.